By Mike Dabadie (Co-CEO, Founding Partner)
Key Takeaways:
- Predictive AI ≠ Human Understanding: AI can forecast choices, but it lacks insight into context, intention, and emotion.
- Human Values Drive Decisions: Personal and cultural values shape behavior more deeply than data patterns.
- Understanding the “Why” Matters: Businesses need to go beyond prediction to uncover the motivations behind choices.
- AI Is a Tool, Not a Replacement: Use AI to amplify insights, but rely on human judgment for strategy and meaning.
- Strategic Risk of Over-Reliance: Solely trusting predictive models can lead to missed opportunities and misaligned messaging.
- Heart+Mind’s Approach: Combines AI efficiency with human-centered research to reveal authentic truths and guide impactful strategy.
A headline recently caught my attention: “AI thinks like humans with ‘unprecedented’ accuracy, study reveals.”
Bold claim, right?
According to the study, a predictive AI model—Centaur AI—was trained on millions of decisions from psychology experiments and can now predict human choices better than traditional cognitive theories. In fact, it claims to know what choice you’ll make before you make it.
Eye-catching? Definitely.
But also… a bit misleading.
As someone who’s spent decades helping organizations understand why people make the choices they do—not just what they choose—I had to pause.
At Heart+Mind Strategies, we don’t just look at behavior. We dig into values, motivations, aspirations—the human truths that sit beneath every decision.
So while I’m all for scientific progress, I think it’s time we hit pause on the hype. Because confusing prediction with understanding isn’t just a philosophical slip—it’s a strategic one. And it could cost businesses real opportunities, loyal customers, and cultural relevance.
Prediction ≠ Understanding
The Centaur AI model introduced in this study boasts over 80% accuracy in predicting human behavior across 160 psychological studies. That’s impressive, no doubt.
But let’s break down what it’s actually doing:
- It’s trained on decisions made in highly controlled experimental settings.
- It recognizes statistical patterns in how people act.
- It “learns” what choice someone is likely to make based on observable inputs.
Sounds smart, right? But here’s the catch: People are not algorithms.
What this predictive AI model doesn’t grasp is the stuff that really matters:
- Context – The social, emotional, and cultural backdrop behind a decision.
- Intention – What someone’s actually trying to achieve.
- Meaning – The personal or shared value that gives a choice significance.
- Emotion and values – AI leans on logic, but we humans? We’re beautifully irrational. Our choices are often a mix of heart and head.
These aren’t just philosophical ideas—they’re the foundation of smart business strategy and meaningful communication.
What Actually Drives Human Choice?
We’ve known for a long time—thanks to brilliant minds like Milton Rokeach, Shalom Schwartz, and our own founder Dr. Richard Wirthlin—that behavior is just the surface. What really drives human choice runs much deeper.
Here’s what we’ve learned:
Personal values matter.
Rokeach showed us that people make decisions based on two types of values: life goals (like security or happiness) and the ways they try to achieve them. These values quietly shape everyday choices in powerful ways.
Culture plays a big role.
Schwartz’s work revealed how societies prioritize values like inclusivity or stability—and how those priorities influence national behaviors and global trends.
Purpose is everything.
Wirthlin’s laddering method, grounded in means-end theory, helps us trace a decision from the concrete attributes to the benefits, to an emotional outcome, and finally to a core personal value. It’s how we uncover the real “why” behind a choice.
LEARN MORE: How Heart+Mind applies means-end theory in values research
And here’s the thing: predictive AI, no matter how advanced, doesn’t grasp these layers. It can spot patterns and predict behavior—but it doesn’t understand the meaning behind it. It doesn’t feel context, intention, or emotion. It doesn’t get the “why.”
Why This Matters in Today’s Economy
In today’s world—where uncertainty is the norm, AI is everywhere, and people are more skeptical than ever—leaders are under pressure to make faster, smarter decisions. But here’s the catch: speed can’t come at the cost of truly understanding what people care about.
Relying only on predictive AI? That’s where things can go sideways. Here’s why:
1. You Might Be Missing the Bigger Picture
Predictive AI can tell you what people are doing—but not why. And without the why, you’re flying blind.
Think about it:
- Why does one bad service call make a loyal customer walk away?
- Why are Gen Z employees disengaging, even with all the perks?
- Why are high-income consumers suddenly rethinking brand loyalty?
These aren’t just data points. They’re human stories—and predictive AI alone can’t tell them.
2. “Unbiased” Doesn’t Mean “Accurate”
Predictive AI decisions often look clean and rational. But are they really? Behavioral science legends like Kahneman and Ariely have shown us that human choices are full of quirks, emotions, and shortcuts. Great strategy doesn’t ignore that—it leans into it.
3. Values Are the Real Loyalty Drivers
At the end of the day, people stick with brands that reflect what they believe in. We’ve seen it time and again: when a brand aligns with core human values, it doesn’t just win customers—it earns trust, advocacy, and belief.
And that kind of connection? It doesn’t come from a prediction model. It comes from understanding people.
RELATED: The Power of Human Choice: Reimagining Decision Making for People and Organizations
What Businesses Should Do Instead
If you’re a CMO, innovation lead, or part of the C-suite trying to drive meaningful growth in 2025, here’s the truth: predictive AI is powerful—but it’s not the whole story. To really connect with people and build lasting impact, we need to go deeper.
🔊 Use AI as an Amplifier, Not a Prophet
Let AI do what it does best—crunch data, spot patterns, and speed up analysis.
But when it comes to judgment, interpretation, and intuition? That’s still human territory.
Blend predictive AI insights with human-centered research to get the full picture.
❤️ Build Strategy Around What People Truly Value
Don’t just ask what people are doing. Ask:
- What are they really trying to achieve?
- What values—personal or societal—are influencing their choices?
- What emotions are they navigating?
Tools like means-end models and decision mapping help uncover the deeper “why” behind behavior.
🔍 Rethink Your Research Approach
Instead of just validating what predictive AI already sees, dig into the messy, meaningful stuff:
- Contradictions between beliefs and actions
- Emotional tensions and value trade-offs
- The language people use when they talk about choices—it’s full of clues that data alone can’t capture
What We Do Differently at Heart+Mind
We’re not anti-AI—we’re just unapologetically pro-human.
At Heart+Mind, we blend the best of both worlds: smart AI tools and our own proven frameworks to create strategies that don’t just make sense—they make a difference.
Here’s how we help our clients go deeper:
- We uncover what really drives decisions—values, emotions, and aspirations.
- We design “choice architectures” that gently guide people toward better outcomes—for themselves and for society.
- We turn insights into action through creative strategy, messaging, and experience design.
- And we help people connect the dots between what they say, what they feel, and what they truly need—even when they’re not fully aware of it themselves.
And here’s a fun twist: AI has always been part of Heart+Mind. Literally. It’s right there in our name: He(A)rt + M(I)nd.
But that’s more than a clever coincidence. It reflects what we believe: the future of strategy isn’t AI vs. humans—it’s Human-Guided AI.
We use AI to:
- Analyze vast data sets more efficiently.
- Spot patterns in messy, unstructured feedback.
- Test ideas faster and at scale.
But when it comes to interpreting those patterns, crafting the strategy, and shaping the message? That’s still human work. It takes empathy. Creativity. Judgment.
Because insight without meaning is just noise.
And intelligence without values? That’s just machinery.
Predictive AI can tell you what people do.
We help you understand why—so you can decide how to lead, grow, and connect.
Final Thought: Don’t Be Fooled by Smart Machines
Sure, AI might eventually mimic our behaviors—and maybe even make decisions for us. But it will never replicate what makes us human.
In today’s business world, the real edge isn’t faster predictions. It’s deeper understanding. And that doesn’t come from machines. It comes from listening—really listening—to people. With curiosity. With empathy. With purpose.
If you’re drowning in dashboards that don’t tell stories, models that miss the meaning, or strategies that feel disconnected from the people they’re meant to serve…
Let’s talk.
Because behind every decision is a knowable and authentically human truth.
And it’s time we got back to that.
Connect with Mike Dabadie to learn more about how Heart+Mind can add value to your understanding of the human choices that matter most to your success.